Does Latin America need Russia / CARTE BLANCHE / Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Collage NG-Online

Representatives of the Turkish airline in Istanbul, one after another, remove Russian citizens from flights with paid tickets, hotel reservations and tours. The reason is almost openly stated to be the same – in Latin America “they are not waiting for you.” And we, they say, are simply fulfilling an unspoken ban on the delivery of holders of Russian passports to the New World.

This was immediately followed by comments from Russian tour operators and Russian consuls in both Turkey and Latin America with assurances regarding “close monitoring of the situation and bringing information about what is happening to the authorities.” I think that these clarifications relate exclusively to minor issues (such as the flow of migrants to the United States from Mexico or the “maternity trips” of Russian women to Argentina) and do not affect the main thing – a very serious reformatting of relations between the majority of Latin American and Caribbean states with the Russian Federation after the start of a special military operation (SVO ).

Since representatives of the Turkish airline are so unfair to Russians, it would be worth starting with the banal – the lack of direct flights to Latin America from Russia. It was not in a regular format and still is not. Charters with a meager number of tourists to Cuba and Venezuela do not improve the weather on the Russia-Latin America transport bridge. What can we talk about if there is no direct air connection even with “Russia’s great friend in the BRICS” – Brazil?

Russian tourists flying to Mexico or the Caribbean complain that the Turks do not allow them on flights in Istanbul even if they have tickets and other things, which no one asks any tourist from another country. The problem is that after the start of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia lost very important tourist destinations that were previously served by charters – the Dominican Republic and Mexico. The loss is understandable: these countries are prohibited from receiving Russian aircraft under the threat of stopping the arrival of planes there from the United States.

Since the tourist flow from the United States is not comparable with the number of tourists from Russia (although before the pandemic, more than 1 million Russians visited the Dominican Republic per year), these countries refused to accept planes from the Russian Federation. And flying there with transfers from Cuba or Venezuela is a headache. And tourism, whether to one country or another, for Russians is essentially a reservation. Only to one island, only in a tour package and only with a fixed landing on the return flight. Russians who have the means to travel to Latin America have begun to use flights via Dubai. Which is more than expensive in terms of money, but at least reliable.

Now about the main thing – about Russia’s relations with the countries of the region. A trio of reliable allies there – Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua – is all that is available both for support in pressing buttons when voting at the UN, and in terms of maintaining contacts at the political level. In terms of economic and trade relations, the entire trio is in a very difficult situation and does not represent any importance for Moscow today.

And the rest of the Latin American region, like many countries in Africa and Asia, has taken a wait-and-see approach regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This means that since the beginning of the North Eastern Military District, no high-ranking delegations from the Western Hemisphere have come to Russia. There are no high-level Russian representatives there either. Because they are “undesirable” so as not to aggravate relations with the United States.

I will not mention the protocol participation of Russian representatives in the G20 summit in Brazil and the planned visit of the head of this country to the BRICS summit in Kazan this coming fall. We are talking specifically about full-fledged bilateral visits at the highest level or at least at the level of heads of intergovernmental commissions where they exist.

I note that all this is happening against the backdrop of strengthening relations between a number of Latin American countries and Ukraine, where the role of the “main organizer” in support of Kyiv is played by the newly elected President of Argentina, Javier Miley. This year it is planned to hold a Latin America-Ukraine summit, in which one and a half dozen countries are expected to participate, as well as the signing of documents on economic cooperation.

Let’s not forget that about 1 thousand mercenaries from Latin America are currently fighting for Ukraine (most of all from Colombia, Uruguay and Chile). And Argentina expressed a desire to develop military cooperation with Ukraine, including the supply of weapons and ammunition to it. In addition, Buenos Aires recently announced its intention to obtain the status of NATO’s main partner in Latin America. Which, on the one hand, will automatically strengthen the anti-Russian positions of the administration in Buenos Aires, and on the other, will completely remove any chance of Argentina joining BRICS from the agenda.

With the help of Brazil, Russia is still trying to encourage a country to join BRICS instead of Argentina (Venezuela and Colombia are the most commonly named countries). But instead of the same bet on geopolitics, it is much more logical, I think, to calculate whether the countries of the region now need Russia, first of all, in economic terms? After all, everything that Russia offers to foreign markets is available in Latin American countries, with the exception of a number of technologies where Moscow has certain achievements.

But, as with the issue of tourist flow from the Russian Federation, everything depends on the threat of American sanctions. If some Latin American country wants to acquire Russian technology or sell something to the Russian Federation, its ties with US companies and the international payment system will immediately be cut off. Even the main BRICS country on the continent, Brazil, is extremely afraid of this. What can we say about other states that have much more profitable contracts with the United States and diversified interaction.

In general, the issue now is not the arbitrariness of the Turkish airline’s staff and its biased attitude towards Russians. The essence of the problem is much deeper. And it is far from a fact that any outcome in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can change this situation for the better.