Tinkoff Investments forecast the ruble exchange rate until the end of 2024

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Adaptation to the new reality of the last two years is largely completed, analysts say, and the ruble, in their opinion, looks neither too expensive (as in 2022) nor too cheap (as in the summer-autumn of 2023).

In the opinion of Tinkoff Investments strategists, if the commodity market remains more or less stable, which is now included in the global market consensus, the ruble may remain in the range of 90-95 rubles/$1 until the end of 2024. At the same time, seasonal volatility is likely to continue. Commodity flows continue to have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.

“Internal conditions are working in favor of the ruble,” experts point out. “Imports, which create demand for the currency, stabilized in the second half of 2023, and 2024 began at a level noticeably lower than last year. Imports are restrained by price increases and a tight monetary policy , as well as the exhaustion of pent-up demand. The outflow of capital from the country has also slowed down significantly, and we do not see obvious triggers for its possible acceleration.
The transfer of private funds to the external perimeter has already reached a certain saturation and is constrained by the complication of the conditions for cross-border transactions, as well as, to a certain extent, high ruble rates. The repayment of external debt, given the record decline that has already occurred, has become more measured. And the withdrawal of remaining funds from foreign investors is limited by regulation.
Although we expect a reduction in the key rate, monetary conditions will actually remain tight for a long period. This will also have a positive impact on the ruble. In addition, the stabilization of the ruble is facilitated by the budget rule, the currency part of which has been finalized since this year, and the presence in the Bank of Russia’s arsenal of regulatory measures on capital flows, which it actively applies and continues to adjust.”

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