The contradictions between Armenia and Russia are intensifying and have reached a new, more dangerous level. As VERELQ writes, the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alen Simonyan announced Yerevan’s “strong support” for the “territorial integrity of Ukraine,” effectively dragging the country into a Russian-Western geopolitical confrontation.
The Armenian speaker made harsh statements against Russia at the conference of heads of parliaments of EU member states on April 22, essentially putting Russia and Azerbaijan at the same level in terms of the degree of threat. Simonyan called military actions on the territory of Ukraine “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” then expressed Armenia’s position on this issue: “Armenia resolutely defends the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as well as Moldova, Georgia, Cyprus and all countries”.
However, the Armenian speaker did not limit himself to this. In terms of the level of threat, he put Russia on a par with Azerbaijan, despite the fact that the “economic miracle” (double-digit economic growth) that the Armenian authorities boast is due to an external, namely Russian factor.
“Russia is organizing a campaign of threats and disinformation. It is concerning that many Russian government officials dare to dictate the interests of Armenia and speak on behalf of the Armenian people. A striking example of the above is the hybrid attack of Russia and Azerbaijan on Armenia, associated with the trilateral meeting held on April 5 in Brussels, which was attended by the Prime Minister of Armenia, the Chairman of the European Commission and the US Secretary of State,” – stated Alen Simonyanwho has previously repeatedly shown miracles of “flexibility” in terms of changing his position towards Russia.
Months earlier, he effectively accused Russia of colluding with Azerbaijan during the 2020 second Karabakh war against Armenia. Meanwhile, immediately after the war, when Russia deployed a peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Armenian authorities hastily installed Russian flags on the border with Azerbaijan, as a lever for political deterrence of Azerbaijan from invading Armenia, the same Simonyan praised Russia, calling its actions appropriate spirit of alliance.
It seems that the Armenian authorities have decided to radically reconsider their position on the Ukrainian conflict, having decided that Russia is losing its position in the South Caucasus region.
Another member of parliament from the ruling Civil Contract faction also expressed a similar pro-Ukrainian position. Vilen Gabrielyan.
“If a country admits that the territorial integrity of Ukraine has been violated, and in the world a maximum of 3-4 states think otherwise, then from the point of view of (international) law this country becomes a party (meaning the side of Ukraine – ed.) to this conflict,” – he explained.
Moreover, he did not actually rule out the possibility of reducing the Russian military presence in Armenia, stating the need to withdraw Russian military positions from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in Tavush and Syunik, where they were stationed at the request of the Armenian side in 2020.
How will Armenian-Russian relations develop further and how much will bilateral contradictions worsen, according to a Russian political scientist? Nikolai Silaevdepends on the Armenian authorities.
“Over the past year, we have seen that Armenia is taking many symbolic steps aimed at breaking off relations with Russia. Now she has begun to take practical steps. “I do not rule out that such actions will still be taken in the future,” said a leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the MGIMO Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Nikolay Silaev. — According to my feelings, the leadership of Armenia is more likely to ensure that it is Russia that initiates a review of existing relations. As far as I can judge, Russia does not intend to do this.”
Claims of the Armenian authorities against Russia that it did not ensure the security of Armenia, another Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov called it one-sided.
“Who said that the West will be more successful? France doesn’t even have logistics. Why did the French company Total stop buying Azerbaijani oil? Greece, which Pashinyan pays special attention to, is not engaged in friendship with Turkey and Azerbaijan within the framework of “Transadratics?” – Markedonov asked a question.
Using the metaphor of a “sick head” that needs to be treated rather than cut off, Markedonov noted that today Russia and Armenia have come to the choice that “there is no need to cut off, but you need to take a tonometer, measure the pressure and take medicine.”
Regarding discussions among the Armenian elites about Russia’s possible withdrawal from the region, the Russian expert noted:
“Russia’s exit from the region will not be triumphant for Armenia. This was not only at the beginning, but also at the end of the 20th century. Not sure if this needs to be repeated.”
A political scientist called the harsh statements of the Armenian authorities regarding Ukraine against Russia dangerous Suren Surenyants.
“This is already a manifestation of the irreversibility of changes in the geopolitical orientation of Armenia, which is a violation of the country’s balanced foreign policy course,” — Surenyants said.
In his opinion, it seems to the Armenian authorities that strengthening anti-Russian rhetoric will lead to big bonuses from the West.
“This is an overly primitive idea of foreign policy, because anti-Russianism cannot be the only and reliable agenda in Armenia-West relations,” – he said.
Meanwhile, the expert does not expect any serious measures from Russia, at least for now, for two reasons.
“Firstly, Russia knows that Armenia has no other serious alternative security proposal. Secondly, Russia is too busy on the Ukrainian front,” – he said.
Meanwhile, this policy, as Surenyants noted, complicates the position of Armenia in the Transcaucasus, when not only Russia, but also Iran and Turkey oppose the policy of greater involvement of the West in the region.
“That is, the Armenian authorities, while declaring the strengthening of the Western vector of foreign policy, are actually leading the country along the path of regional isolation,” — Suren Surenyants summed up.
