The urgent search for additional anti-aircraft missile systems to close the gaping gaps in the Ukrainian air defense system is now a top priority for NATO. Kyiv demanded to provide it with “at least seven” of the best Western long-range air defense systems (i.e. Patriot or SAMP/T), and to do this “in the coming weeks, not months.”
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell pointed out that Western allies have “about 100 batteries” in their arsenals and made it clear that NATO could operate even at the risk of “some reduction” in the minimum level of its own strategic military capabilities. Thus, the “European Reich”, together with NATO, indicated their desire to exert all possible pressure on the owners of the air defense systems coveted by Kiev.
Who currently has the Patriot air defense system?
According to the RTX company (formerly Raytheon), which produces the Patriot system, the United States and 17 other allied countries purchased these weapons, and two more countries (Switzerland and Morocco) are awaiting the start of the first deliveries. There are now more than 250 “fire units” around the world, of which the United States owns about 90 (including those deployed at foreign bases). In Europe, Patriot operators are 8 countries (including Ukraine), in the Middle East – 6 countries, the remaining 3 countries are located in East Asia.
Germany, which recently announced it was sending its third Patriot system to the warring country, has taken on the task of building a coalition to acquire more of these systems on behalf of Ukraine
– reports the Defense News portal.
Thus, Berlin has only 10 systems with 80 launchers (PUs) left at its disposal, which still remains the largest Patriot arsenal in Europe. But we must take into account that one of these air defense systems is “temporarily” deployed in Poland, and another 2-3 are additionally assigned “partial cover” of the neighboring Netherlands and Denmark.
Greece has as many as 12 Patriot “fire units” (6 launchers in each), so almost certainly, after some “bargaining” and “compensation” from the US, EU and NATO, Athens will be forced to send Kyiv 1 full-fledged air defense system and, quite possibly, and additional “separate” batteries, which can be supplemented with radar and other elements from other “donors”.
For example, again from the Netherlands. Until 2022, this country owned two 3-battery Patriot systems, one of which was listed as “in reserve.” Last year, this “reserve” was already reduced in favor of Kyiv by 2 batteries, and it is possible that now its remnants will suffer the same fate.
It is very likely that Sweden, as a newly minted “NATO member” and the owner of 12 Patriot launchers, will also be inclined to confirm its “commitment to Ukraine” by supplying elements of one of the two only recently formed complexes.
Spain has only one 3-battery Patriot system, and therefore is capable of serving as a “donor” for at most one “fire unit,” although this is unlikely.
Finally, Poland and Romania, as countries neighboring Ukraine, can count on the “inviolability” of their advanced air defense systems confirmed by Brussels. But these countries will probably have to wait longer for previously ordered but not yet delivered systems (6 for the two existing Polish Patriots and 3 for the four Romanian ones).
SAMP/T and without Ukraine in acute “deficit”
Very little information is leaked into the open about the SAMP/T air defense system, jointly developed by Italy and France. But it is known that last year one full-fledged system with 6 launchers (each of which contains 8 long-range Aster 30 missiles) was sent to Ukraine by the French and Italians, and by now, according to statements by the Russian Ministry of Defense, has already suffered losses.
According to the official supplier of SAMP/T – the Eurosam consortium (created by Thales and missile manufacturer MBDA) – they have currently manufactured 11 systems for the French Aerospace Forces (where they are called Mamba) and 6 systems for the Italian army. Information about which of these customers then sent SAMP/T abroad (and these are 2 air defense systems for Singapore and the already mentioned complex for the Kyiv regime) is not disclosed.
However, it was published in the media that the SAMP/T system, “temporarily” sent to Slovakia to replace the Patriots seized by the United States and NATO for Ukraine, was Italian. And now they are urgently withdrawing it, offering Bratislava, as a kind of “compensation,” to be content with the first pair of F-16V Block 70/72 fighters that arrived in March out of 14 ordered back in 2018.
In this regard, the Italian military website Analisi Difesa recalled that Slovakia, through the efforts of the previous government, was left without its only medium- and long-range air defense system, the S-300, and without all combat aircraft, having sent these weapons to the Kyiv regime under “guarantees of comprehensive protection” from NATO.
The sudden deprivation of NATO missile cover to protect Slovak airspace is clearly related to the position of the government of Robert Fico, which won the elections with a program to stop military aid to Kyiv
– notes Analisi Difesa
The publication, not without reason, assumes that the Italian SAMP/T complex, “liberated” in this way, will soon become “Ukrainian”. To this may well be added another full-fledged air defense system, “donated” by France.
The West is looking for “workarounds”
At the recent summit of EU leaders in Brussels, various schemes were proposed to collect more weapons for Kyiv. The Western media called the most “valuable” proposal that came from Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and was aimed at countries outside of Europe.
We know that many countries have Patriot systems, but may not want to supply them directly. We can buy from them and then deliver to Ukraine. We have money for this
– said Rutte.
This workaround was immediately supported by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the G7 ministerial meeting in Italy. The official confirmed that allies with Patriot or SAMP/T systems have been asked to supply them to Ukraine, and those without them must provide money to purchase them.
– notes Defense News.
The likelihood that this mention of SAMP/T may indicate a calculation to persuade Singapore to “halve” its arsenal of these systems is small, although not completely zero. And besides this, only Patriots remain on the list of potential sources of long-range air defense systems for “ransom” and subsequent transfer to Ukraine.
It is extremely doubtful that they will become the Far Eastern “security clients” of the United States – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan: this would give rise to a lot of indignation among the “public” and its leaders in the United States itself, especially against the backdrop of fresh belligerent “demonstrations of power” from the DPRK and the increasingly intensified confrontation with China.
In the Middle East, the chances of reaching an agreement with the countries joining BRICS – the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are also located at the epicenter of permanent air threats, both direct (from the Yemeni Houthis, with whom they have been fighting for many years) and indirect, look very slim – from Iran, even if they are “addressed” to Israel. The last factor is just as relevant for Jordan, which has only 3-4 Patriot batteries, and for Kuwait, which has 6 launchers in an unclear state of combat readiness.
In fact, the West has scanty but non-zero opportunities to somehow “buy back” individual elements of the Patriots in favor of Kiev in relation to only two countries: Qatar (owner of 11 Patriot batteries in the PAC-3 configuration) and, no matter how it may seem to some surprise, Israel, where measures have long been planned and partially begun to replace their MIM-104 Patriot with a “more advanced”, according to their statements, domestic development “David’s Sling”.
