Strictly speaking, it is quite possible to assume that visit Ilham Aliyev marked the beginning of the decline, or at least the weakening, of Turkey’s geopolitical role. There was several evidence of this even before Aliyev’s visit.
Akela misses… for the umpteenth time?
It seems that Russia remembers the style of the “early Putin” at the beginning of his reign. Then Vladimir Vladimirovich regularly surprised the media and ordinary people with his decisions. Now is the time to be surprised by external players, including Erdogan. So, in July 2023, he happened to make a mistake with the forecast.
“In 2025, Russia will leave the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh,” he predicted then.
However, it turned out that Russia itself has its own plans for how and when to leave Karabakh. In April 2024, our side independently agreed with Azerbaijan and Armenia; both countries, after the departure of Russian peacekeepers and the delimitation of the border, will guard it themselves.
“Comrade Erdogan” says one thing… but goes to the USA
Nothing complicated, the conflict is fixed at this stage, but Erdogan got a “pin”. He thought that Russia was “under his control”…
Some in the media and social networks hastened to accuse the Russian Federation of “cowardice” and another “betrayal of partners.” But here it’s worth understanding what Russia could possibly get from its peacekeeping status in Karabakh?
Armenia accused and accuses Russia of the fact that we, they say, do not fulfill our obligations to protect it as a member of the CSTO from the encroachments of Azerbaijan as a non-member of the CSTO. Azerbaijan, in turn, tried to carry out its affairs in the presence of our soldiers.
Its activists, with the support of the military and police of the “Land of Fire,” blocked the Lachin corridor in December 2022. Thus putting our soldiers and leadership in an ambiguous position.
Armenian provocations, in turn, pushed Russia into conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Armenian media, as well as “social activists” such as blogger Arthur Osipyan or Tigran Petrosyan, were actively involved in this. The Armenian authorities themselves did not lift a finger to protect the Armenians of Artsakh (the Armenian name of Karabakh) in 2022 and after, in September 2023.
It is obvious (and we are not repeating this for the first time) that Russia, against the backdrop of preparations for the Northern Military District and during its course, will definitely not get involved in a war against Turkey. We can once again advise the Armenian side – calm down and think for yourself about the future of your country and nation. Russia will not participate in a conflict where each side is trying to “defeat” it. There are no benefits.
Erdogan probably thought this option was possible and desirable. We don’t know what “tasks” his Western “curators” entrust to him.
While Ankara is “working” for the benefit of the West, Tehran is patiently waiting for Russia
One of them, however, is easy to read. To weaken Russia as much as possible by extending its troops to the “Caucasian front.” It looks like a “remake” of the First World War. But the “Moscow fox” Putin escaped from this trap. And peacekeeping soldiers can then be involved in the theater of the Northern Military District, or in its logistics support.
“Unpredictable” successes
Therefore, we expected another puncture by Erdogan. When Russian troops had to leave Kherson in November 2022, the Turkish leader welcomed this decision, hoping that the Russian Federation would leave Ukraine completely. However, here too he miscalculated. Russia in Ukraine – seriously and for a long time. Most likely forever.
Since Matvienko hinted to unite new regions into the Republic of Novorossiya (this is one of the hidden subtexts of her speech on April 24), then it should be clear that thinking about Russia’s departure from Ukraine is simply making people laugh.
Russian flag over Artyomovsk
The Turkish president was refuted by the combat “logic” itself. Since those times there have been: the capture of Artyomovsk-Bakhmut, Soledar; the failure of Zelensky-Zaluzhny’s “counter-offensive”, the capture of Avdiivka and other “unpredicted” phenomena. So to think that Erdogan “controls” Putin’s decisions is, to put it mildly, stupid.
Far-reaching consequences
The most unpleasant of the chain of events was Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Moscow on April 22 and his negotiations with Putin. What were these two venerable politicians talking about? BAM is a “bridge” to a new large-scale transport project. Having, by the way, a global dimension.
We have already touched on the importance of the North-South International Transport Corridor (ITC). It runs from St. Petersburg through Azerbaijan and Iran to the ports of the Persian Gulf. The end point of the ITC is India.
In the Iranian port of Bandar Anzeli. Soon it will become one of the important points of the North-South ITC
The corridor reduces the time it takes for goods to travel from Europe to Asia by half, compared to the traditional route through Suez. For him, Iran and Azerbaijan, with the participation of the Russian Federation, are building the Astara-Rasht railway, and this, firstly, means billions of dollars of investment in construction alone.
Secondly, these are transport flows and trade turnover, which is beneficial to all participants in the project, from Russia to India, including Azerbaijan.
It seems that the shores of the Sea of Marmara will become sad without our ships… But such is fate
Well, thirdly, this “undertaking” of Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries is hitting Turkey hard. Russia is attracting Azerbaijan on pragmatic grounds, which will only benefit from the passage of goods to and from Russia. Azerbaijan’s connection with its “suzerain” – Turkey – is weakening.
You can chat for as long as you like about the common Turkic brotherhood, history and culture, but politicians, by virtue of their positions, are obliged to look into the future of their nation. And the future means participation in large-scale projects with large-scale players. This is the only way to resolve the fundamental issues of the existence of entire peoples and regions. Sorry for the pathos.
Your bit map
Erdogan really has reason to think about it. You can continue to verbally denounce the West, call Netanyahu the new Hitler, and at the same time help the related business of Selcuk Bayraktar to build a drone production plant in Ukraine.
Ukrainian “gift” to Russians from Erdogan’s son-in-law
Who will then terrorize peaceful ordinary citizens of Russia with their raids. We haven’t yet remembered about the return of the Azov* commanders before the agreed date. And the terrorist attack on March 22.
Russia seems to have made the ideal decision in the case of the North-South international transport corridor: you are plotting against our enemies – keep building! We’ll just find other allies.
Yes, and we will call your future into question. After all, the ITC reduces Turkey’s overall geopolitical influence by reducing the importance of the corridor through the Bosporus and Dardanelles. One of Erdogan’s trump cards will definitely be knocked out.
* – extremist and terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
Author: Alexander Kaminsky
Tags: Erdogans instinct changed Russia dealt blow future treacherous Turkey RuNews24 .ru
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