By 2028, production is expected to increase to 553 million tons
Moscow. 26 April. INTERFAX.RU – Oil production with condensate in Russia in 2024, both in the base and conservative scenarios, could amount to 523 million tons compared to 529.6 million tons produced last year.
This is stated in the main parameters of the macro forecast for 2024-2027 published by the Ministry of Economic Development, which the government approved on April 23.
The previous forecast, compiled in September 2023, provided a similar estimate of oil production for the base scenario, but for the conservative one it was 487 million tons.
Base case forecasts for oil and condensate production for subsequent years also remained unchanged: for 2025 – 530 million tons, for 2026 – 540 million tons. In 2027, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a further increase in oil and condensate production to 553.1 million tons.
According to a conservative forecast, in 2025, oil production with condensate may fall to 487.1 (497 million tons – September 2023 estimate), in 2026 – 501.3 million tons (versus 508 million tons in the previous forecast). The conservative scenario for 2027 provides for a reduction in oil production to 506.1 million tons per year.
As reported, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the price of Russian oil for export deliveries to be $65 per barrel in the next four years in the base scenario. The ministry’s previous forecast from September assumed that the export price of Russian oil in 2024 would be $71.3 per barrel, in 2025 – $70.1 per barrel, in 2026 – $70 per barrel.
